テスラ Q3 2020 カンファレンスコールQ&A

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

CEO Elon Musk on Q3 2020 Results

EPS of $0.76 beats by $0.16

Revenue of $8.77B (39.16% Y/Y) beats by $457.3M

Conference Call October 21, 2020 5:30 PM ET

Elon Musk

Q3 は歴史的だった。生産、デリバリ―、売上げ、利益すべて記録的なものだった。フリーキャッシュフローは　1.4 ビリオンだった。世界中のテスラチームのおかげだ。

バッテリーデイで、将来のプランを披露した。our plans for how we can expand in the future and improve core battery technology, core cell technology at the form factor level, chemistry level and I think more significantly at the manufacturing technology level.

テスラの長期にわたる competitive strength はマニュファクチャリングにある。これは直観に反するかもしれないが。

バッテリーをゼロから考え直してきた。rethink batteries from scratch.

we'll continue to iterate(繰り返す) on that and just recursively improve the core cell and battery technology.

２～３年のうちに、バッテリーコストを半分にできるだろう。

同時に設備投資は今日の３分の１で済むようになるだろう。 the capital expenditures required are a-third or less of what they are today.

ギガ・ベルリンでは、テスラ最初の大規模バッテリー・セルプロダクションを行う。 we expect Giga Berlin will see our first battery cell production line at scale.

ベストなチームのハードワークによって、ＦＳＤベータをリリースできた。徐々に全世界に広げていく。システムがデータを収集し続けることにより、よりロバストなものになっていくだろう。グーグルの検索が改良されていくのと同じ原理だ（100万台のカスタマーフィードバックによるデバッグ＆改善）。

しかもこれはニューラルアプローチだから、完成時にはＨＤマップや、回線接続さえ必要ない。今年度中にリリースしたい。

ギガ上海の拡張は、非常に上手くいっている。

ベルリンとオースティンも建設中。両方からも来年には出荷を始められるだろう（現在は基礎工事中）。

ただプロダクション立ち上げ期は時間を要するかもしれないが。。。ティッピングポイントを超えることができれば、指数関数的にプロダクションの上昇を見込める。

アフォーダブルなプライスで、グレートなプロダクトを生み出すことが我々のゴールだ。

今日ほどテスラの将来にオプティミスティックになったことはない。困難をともに乗り越えてきた株主に感謝したい。多くのグッドニュースが今後もあるだろう。

I think I've never felt more optimistic about the future of Tesla than I do today. I'd also like to thank investors who have stuck with us through thick and thin. This is -- I think there's a lot more good stuff to come.

Zachary Kirkhorn

排出権販売は予想より良かった。今年度中に去年の2倍になるだろう。

自動車部門の粗利は、 increased materially from 18.7% to 23.7%, with some of our programs achieving greater than 25% gross margin.

現地生産割合も　under 50% at the beginning of last year to over 70% most recently, which is a core component of our cost reduction strategy.

これがコスト削減の一番のストラテジーだ。

車の信頼性の向上も、アフターコストの削減に役立っている。

エネルギー事業でも記録的な　record storage deploymentsだった。メガパックもパワーウォールともにだ。

filler deployments は2倍になった。

手許キャッシュは$14.5 billionになった。

FCFは$1.4 billion

営業キャシュは $2.4 billion

資本支出は$1 billion　主に Model Y incidents in Shanghai, Berlin, and Austin. 用

Model 3 Shanghai and Model Y in Fremont向けの支出は今年度中に完了予定

財務キャッシュは $4.5 billionだった。

今年度中の 500,000 台出荷目標は堅持。難しいが実現可能と考えている。

RJ Johnson

メガパックは急成長している。キャパの拡張中。世界中の unprecedented demand を満たすために。2023 in a multiple gigawatt-hour scaleが目標。

大規模ソーラーのほうが化石燃料よりもコスト面で有利になってきている。

This is true for standalone storage as well.

パワーウォールでの需要も強い。電気の安定供給とバックアップを求めている顧客が増えている。オーダーのバックログはものすごく多い。その需要を満たすための投資を続けている。

ソーラールーフも今後エキサイティングなもののになるだろう。1日で導入が完了する仕組みを構築した。

個人投資家のQ&Aセッション

A - Martin Viecha

4680セルの生産を、Giga Berlinでも行うのか？自動車生産のかたわらで。what products you'll use the battery cells from the pilot line in Fremont?

Drew Baglino

4680セルは多くの応用先を持っている。エネルギー事業でも、自動車でも。フリーモントのパイロット生産設備を使って、ベルリンでの生産増加をサポートするつもりだ。

Martin Viecha

新しいセルデザインは allow for significantly higher peak charging rates?

Does it improve the required taper curve?

Drew Baglino

The fundamental limitation on charge rate in lithium-ion batteries is

avoiding lithium plating（リチウムメッキ現象、金属リチウム付着） on the anode.

And while the tablet's architecture（タブレットアーキテクチャー） helps avoid overheating because it's a more power dense architecture at high continuous charge rates,

it doesn't change the anode plating story.

Electro design and anode material choice more directly determines the maximum charge rate and how to avoid that lithium plating problem.

Martin Viecha

FSDの権利をを次の車両に引き継ぐことはできるか？ブランドへのロイヤリティを高めることにつながると思うのだが。

Elon Musk

考えておきます。

Martin Viecha

ソーラー導入が増加していく際の一番の制約は何か？

一番の制約は導入のためのインストーラーや正規代理店を増やすことだ。現在拡張中だ。

施工現場でのマテリアルフローを改善することも必要だ。

The next opportunity is improving the material flow on the job site. We've talked about this a lot in the factory as well that setting up the right packaging, kitting so that every installer on the roof has the parts they need at their fingertips.

Martin Viecha

テスラは conglomerate of start-upsといったが、今後5～7年のうちで最も価値のある事業はどれか。テスラからスピンアウトしていく事業はあるか？

Elon Musk

現在1ダースを超える数のスタートアップが稼働中だ。

But even things like service and sales are startups. Other car companies, OEMs, they don't own their sales and service. So we have to create our service network. We have to create our sales and delivery network. We have to do this in 40 countries, multiple languages.

So people don't really even know much about is our internal applications team that writes the core technology that runs the company.

We are not dependent on enterprise software.

（ＥＲＰソフトウェアに頼ってはいない）

Like for those who understand what this means, this is a very big deal.

And my hat is well to the great work of the internal applications team.

They are like the nervous system, the operating system of the company, the Tesla operating system, extremely fundamental.

保険事業も重要だ。車製造事業と比べての 30%, 40%の価値を持つだろう。属性に基づき統計的に保険料を決めるのではなく、個々の運転履歴に応じて保険料を決められるのだ。安く提供できるだろう。

the whole autonomy thing is a startup. Ddesigning our computer chips was a start-up.

Obviously sales are a start up.

Designing and making our own power electronics for the grave unit(据え置き型ユニット向けのパワー半導体・回路・基板設計), design, manufacturing our own motors, chargers, the Supercharger network is a startup.

テスラはスタートアップの集合体だが、どれもスピンアウトするつもりはない。それは煩雑さを増やすだけだ。

Martin Viecha

Could you leverage the insurance product

to give customers the ability to rent out their vehicles via the app,

thereby enabling the car to make money for them

, so basically proprietary version of Toro.

Elon Musk

We are focused on enabling the robotaxi system.

So, you can just basically -- like that's really quite a small subset of the overall robotaxi or robocar thing where you can have the car get autonomous for you.

You've got the car you have to share with friends and family.

You can add or remove it from the network.

You can have it be entirely in the network.

if you're an Uber or Lyft driver, you could be managing a fleet of 10 cars.

This sort of seems like a shepherd tending the flock（羊飼いが群れを管理する） type of thing.

It's like you just get more, way more leverage.

Martin Viecha

Residential energy use accounts for roughly the same magnitude of carbon emissions as road transport.

Could you elaborate on HVAC advances in a domestic system?

（ムンロさんがベタ褒めしてたModel Yヒートポンプシステムの家庭用への応用について）

Drew Baglino

how to build a tightly integrated system capable of moving heat to and from powertrain, battery, cabin, the environment, in, outside ambient temperatures, all the way down to like negative 20 C, so 30 C.

それは家庭用にも応用可能だ。

（日本企業の強みは垂直統合とか言われてきたけど、テスラを見てると

「なんちゃって垂直統合」

「垂直統合(www)」

「垂直統合（統合するとは言っていない）」

だったんだなと改めて思うよ。）

 Martin Viecha

生産量と値下げとマージンの関係について

Elon Musk

まだまだ安くしていくつもりだが。それが必ずしもマージンンの犠牲になるとは限らない。

in terms of margins, all of these margins are going to look pretty comically small when you factor in autonomy.

 （これがこのカンファレンスコールで一番重要な一言だ） 

Martin Viecha

at what point do you expect to have enough internal or external battery capacity

to start ramping up stationary storage deployments again?

Elon Musk

設置型は今年度2倍になったが、そのペースを続けていくつもりだ。

Martin Viecha

manufacturing is hard. Delays happen. What contingencies do you have in place to ensure that bottlenecks that you might encounter

while renting internal cell production will not preclude(除外する) you

from your ability to hit your Model Y production volume targets in Berlin and Texas?

Elon Musk

2021に内部のバッテリー生産をアテにはしていない。あったとしても少量だ。内部のバッテリーセル生産は2022年にランプアップするだろう。 

Andrew Baglino

And to derisk the manufacturing system itself, that was one of the reasons why we located our pilot production facility here in Fremont,

so we can rapidly iterate(繰り返し試みる) on manufacturing scale-up challenges,

provide rapid feedback to the design of both the product and the equipment.

Elon Musk

Yes. Our pilot line is pretty big as pilot lines go. It's -- it will be in the top 10 cell factories on Earth, I believe.

機関投資家のＱ＆Ａ

2030年に2千万台の目標とのことだが、中間目標はあるか？

just to put that extra $2 billion to $2.5 billion per year into context?

Elon Musk

中間予測は難しい。

年間2千万台生産といえば、既存の化石燃料車の累計数の１％である。1年間で１％づつでも置き換えることができなければ、世界を変えているとは言えない。

Rod Lache

全個体電池への考えと対応について

if solid-state lithium metal were to become viable(実現可能), could you just pass along your perspective on that? And would you be able to repurpose most of what you're putting into place for changes in technology?

Elon Musk

the cell production system is fairly agnostic(不可知なことが多い)

on anode, cathode, electrolyte subary that kind of thing.

we could change, and we will change and upgrade the -- all aspects of the cell.

we could make ion phosphate or nickel manganese or something like that. It's quite adaptable. So I wouldn't say it's just too much more about. But the lithium, like a pure lithium anode is not as great as it may sound.

Volumetrically, you're not gaining all that much,

because if you got nothing on the anode side

and you got just play out lithium, it's got to go somewhere, so you could have room for it.

→ここらへんもＣＥＯ自ら技術を的確に把握してる発言だよね。そもそも電解質が液体か固体かなんて、全体の性能のほんの一部でしかない。どこかの500Km10分充電の全固体バカとはレベルが違う。 そもそもそんな充電設備がねーよ。

Drew Baglino

Yes, lithium is less volumetrically dense in the pure metal form

than it is intercolated into silicon.

So it's kind of hard to understand, but that's the truth.

And then, as we showed in our presentation, the total anode cost that we're talking about is only $1 or $2 per kilowatt hour.

So the value of removing the anode material isn’t super high either.

yes, I fully agree, Elon.

 →全個体電池とかどーでもいい感じ。リチウムは液体のほうが性能出そう。問題はそこじゃねーだろ的な回答だ。

Colin Rusch

You're talking about in-sourcing a number of processes. Can you talk about which processes you're moving in-house and the equipment that you're planning to make yourself versus some equipment that you’d be buying from other folks?

Cell manufacturing for sure, as well as on the molds that you talked about,

but in terms of the CapEx budget that you mentioned earlier,

talking about a number of processes coming in-house and which equipment pieces you're planning to make yourself versus buying?

Elon Musk

Tesla is absurdly vertically integrated compared to other auto companies or basically almost any company.

We have a massive amount of internal manufacturing technology that we built ourselves. We literally make the machine. 

This makes it quite difficult to copy Tesla, which we're not actually all that opposed to people copying us, but it's quite difficult,

because you can't do catalog engineering.

You can't just, I’ll pick up the supplier catalog, I’ll get one of those machine, one of that machine, then go out now on Tesla.there is no catalog.

we would like to outsource less.

we're just making a crazy amount of machinery internally.

Tesla is not well understood. If you just walk around the factory, you could just get a sense for it.

I don't know if this is like a smart move, but if we're trying to make progress

and nobody's got the machines that we need

 we've got to make it. So we do.

Colin Rusch

the balance sheet has really changed. You guys have run awfully lean and you've got a lot more cushion at this point. And, obviously, there's opportunities around insurance to drive out some of the cost of ownership as well as financials. 

Elon Musk

insurance is a good example of a product that's basically made by our internal applications team. So, we made the insurance product and connect it to the car, look at the data, calculate the risk. This is all internal software application.

 Adam Jonas

If LiDAR were totally free, would you want to use it in your cars near-term?

Would that tech significantly help Tesla on the training of your neural network for FSD?

Elon Musk

I think even if it was free, we wouldn't put it on.

（LiDARはタダと言われても絶対に使わん。オプティカルでいくぞ。）

Adam Jonas

Amazon appears to be investing and building an autonomous or electric transport network through some organic investments, but also Zuk, Aurora, Rivian, etc. What advice would you give Jeff Bezos in his endeavor?

Elon Musk

if you have to care autonomy, you need to focus on vision

because the entire road system is based

on past optical(4Dセンサを実用化しろということだろう)

So you have to solve past optical for to have a self-driving system that is generally a solution. And once you solve past optical, you've solved self-driving. 

（パスト・オプティカルは、自動運転におけるキーワード。

詳細な３Dマッピングはいらんということが一番の含意だろう。

そもそも人間の脳が内部に高精細の３Dマップインストールしてるわけじゃないのに、運転できてるわけだから。）

Pierre Ferragu

You haven't talked that much about Cybertruck today. And I was wondering how like the ramp of that product is looking like? When we should see the product hitting the road? And how fast do you expect to ramp volumes? 

Elon Musk

以前お披露目したものよりもよりよいサイバートラックを届けたいと思っている。

オースティンで作られるので、納車時期は工場の完成時期に左右されるだろう。

外装関連のarmored exoskeleton（外骨格）関連で機能が追加される。

（サイバートラックは、飛行機のように外装がそのまま構造材にもなっている）

外装も傷がつきにくい分だけ加工も難しくなるだろう。

来年末に向けて出荷できると思う。

2022年にはさらに多く出荷できるだろう。

Pierre Ferragu

我々は御社が、今年度末で850,000／年の生産キャパをもつと推測しているが、すると来年度は840,000台から100万台程度出荷できるか？

Elon Musk

当たらずとも遠からずだ、次のカンファレンスコールで来年度の生産見込みを発表する。

Dan Levy

ギガ上海のModel Y and Model 3 の粗利は、フリーモントの Model 3と比べてどうか? そして粗利の改善は、ボリューム増によるものなのか、FSDによるものなのか？

Zachary Kirkhorn

On your question about FSD, there was a small amount of that deferred revenue release. It's not particularly material in the $10 million range for the quarter.

With respect to product margins, what we're seeing across the board is just continued reduction in cost, really across every product.

あらゆるプロダクトにおけるコスト改善が一番の要因だ 

Shanghai continues to make good progress there. Model Y cost is also coming down quite quickly as we ramp that.

But we've guided in the past that Model Y cost should be roughly equivalent to the Model 3 built in Fremont costs.

It's not quite there, and it's also a bit of a moving target as Model 3 Fremont cost comes down, Model Y also has to come down with that.

But we're generally seeing strength in Shanghai margin strength in Model Y margins. And not too far off of this, we're seeing strength in Model 3 Fremont and S and X margins.

So overall, for the quarter, I think it was quite a good story for the products.

Dan Levy

about your strategy in Europe. And I think your strategy generally has been, you cut costs and that allows you to cut price and you can generate the extra volume. And I think that's what we're seeing in China and the use of LFP, that's a good example.

So once you ramp in Berlin, what's the reasonable expectation of what pricing might look like in Europe? And how flexible are you going to be on pricing to generate incremental reg credit（排出権による利益）? So margins out of the gate that are a little low, but are then used for the reg credits that help to offset that.

（値下げと排出権となぜここで持ち出す？全体的に個人投資家の質問のほうが的確で、アナリストはトンチンカンな質問してる感じがするな） 

Zachary Kirkhorn

最優先なの生産台数を増やすことだ（値下げによる需要喚起がメイン戦略ではない。そんなことしなくても需要は旺盛だし、台数増加で排出権獲得なんて副次的なことというニュアンス）

Gene Munster

A question on Semi. the development of Megachargers, platoon and autonomy for Tesla Semi? And how you envision it impacting the broader trucking industry beyond just EV?

Jerome Guillen

We continue the development of the Semi. And in particular, Megachargers, we realized that 350キロワット容量のセミには乗用車用のチャージャーは十分ではない。

So we're looking for something much more powerful than that, that can achieve essentially charging as fast the Semi as during a break, during your driving time so that you can drive until the next break, yes. So there is no usable or efficient time wasted for charging the Semi. That's the goal.

We're working with other parties to make sure that there is a standard infrastructure that will be able to be deployed for all customers.

メガチャージャーの設置には他社との協力しながら行っている。

Elon Musk

とにかくなんにしてもバッテリー増産が一番の制約

The Semi consume a lot of cells. it's, four to six times more than a passenger vehicle, 5-ish times. So if we are cell-constrained, it's difficult to ramp up the Semi because there's no cells. So we need to solve the cell constraint before ramping Semi to significant volume. That's the only real constraint on Semi's progress.

we just kept running into cell production limitations. So we just need more cells, so that we can do more stationary storage, more vehicles, more vehicle lines. We need more cells.

Elon Musk

We're very vertically integrated.

So we're designing and building so much more of the car than other OEMs who will largely go to the traditional supply base and like I call it, catalog engineering.

it's not very adventurous and it basically ends up like older products end up looking the same because they're going to the same suppliers.

to the degree that you inherit legacy components, you inherit the legacy limitations and cost structure.

you need to make new ingredients, new parts, and then there's no machine to make those parts. So you have to make the machine.

So Tesla is more vertically integrated than other car companies.

And then we also have to create our sales and service and distribution system on the order of 40 countries whereas, the other car companies do not own their sales and service and distribution.

So they kind of assemble parts from a supply base and then hand them to a dealer base.

comparing sales to a car company like just comparing just really one facet or dimension of Tesla, we're like maybe 10% in common with other car companies.

（カタログ・エンジニアリングｗｗｗｗｗ既存の車メーカー強烈にディスってるというか、すでにはるか昔から眼中にない感じ。勝手に滅んでいけばっていうか、ウチとああいう過去の遺物と比べるものもう止めてくれない？っていうニュアンス）

Philippe Houchois

エネルギーソリューション事業の展開について

I tried to understand your business model for stationary storage. Have your thoughts on it. One is selling hardware, which is a bit of a cost-plus business.

And I'm just wondering if there's an opportunity where Tesla could actually share into the savings that utilities in particular, could be able to achieve in like grid stabilization.

The information I was able to get on your business in Australia a few years ago suggest that given the savings that are achieved, your hardware could have been sold at a higher price. 

 Zachary Kirkhorn

Yes. we're already seeing this in Australia, where we're seeing behind-the-meter aggregation that is providing grid services back to the grid, which effectively reduces the price to the customer and reduces the prices for the grid operator. So you're seeing this trend happening across the globe. And it's going to be at the residential level as well as the wholesale level.

So Megapack on one end and then PowerWall on the other side, those 2 working together in tandem and the software layer on top of it, Autobidder is going to help make the grid more efficient using the hardware platform and software together.

RJ Johnson

And just a point of clarification, like that the largest battery power plant in Australia, like we continue to operate that power plant and generate revenue in the market. So whether we could have sold it from or less, like we're continuing to make money off of that power plant.

Philippe Houchois

スケートボードデザインは過去のものになるのか？

セルの構造部材化に関して

during the Battery Day, you talked about this cell vehicle integration approach. It's very interesting. the skateboard designed the Tesla Pioneer that many of your followers are using is going to become obsolete? 

Elon Musk

長い期間でみればそうなっていくだろう。

I mean several years from now. Now it's not like existing cars still having value.

It's just that if you have a structural pack, where the pack is contributing structural value to the car

because of  the composite honeycomb effect of shared transfer between upper and lower fleet,

then anything that doesn't do that is going to have to duplicate hardware.

It's going to weigh more. It's going to cost more.

And then the same goes forward the front and rear castings.

we're trying to make the car like you'd make a toy.  how do you make that? You'll cast it. And that's how it's done.

It would be absurd to make it up of tiny little pieces of stamp metal joined in complex ways.

So it's sort of a natural thing to do.

the same goes for using the energy storage, the battery as a structure, which is done for aircraft wings and for rockets.

But like, I wouldn't think of this as like it's like an overnight transition. It's several years. 

→これがホントの垂直統合なんだよな。日本的経営の文脈でトヨタとGM比べて垂直統合云々を論じてきたけど、その議論の土台が根こそぎ覆されてるんだよね。

アジャイル開発、ラピッドプロトタイピングの必要性から。

ゼロベース思考の実現のために

→パソコンはモジュールで、車は統合度が高くてすり合わせだからまだ日本企業が優位～みないな。

→垂直統合でも完敗しとるやんけ！！！

→日本は企業買収したとしても、大胆に人員整理やら部門整理ができないから（終身雇用神話＆極端な保護主義的雇用法制）、結局再編が進まない。結果企業数が多すぎて、企業間の「なんちゃって垂直統合」をすり合わせと称して、部族主義的な儀礼＆マインド（つまりは半奴隷制）でなんとか実現してきたにすぎなかったんだ。

→その虚構が今まさに盛大に崩れ去ろうとしている。

→元テスラ社員のバート・チグサさんが、コンサルタントとしてクライアントから「何を変えなければいけませんか？」と聞かれて「全てです！」と答えてるんだけど、その通りなんだよね。

→で当然のことながら日本企業がすべて変えることなんてハナから無理なんだから、結局競争に敗れていくだけなんだよね。

→まあ日本電産だけは生き残っていくだろうけど、あくまで部品屋だしなぁ。

→機動的に動けない垂直統合とかジョークでしかないからね。

→法律、雇用慣行、マインド、資本市場これらを根こそぎ変えなきゃいけないから完全に無理。高齢化で保守化もヒドいからさらに無理。

→だからトヨタは日本企業であることをやめない限りテスラに構造的に勝てない。同じ土俵に載ることすらできない。